LNG服务
中长期全球气温变化预测
LNG Services
Short- to Long-term Global Temperature Change Projections
项目背景
Project Background
气候风险已经是我们这个时代的决定性挑战，而评估实际的气候与通过模型预测气候风险的影响是更好地了解其现在和未来的影响的重要一步。
Climate risk is already a decisive challenge of our time. Evaluating the actual climate and predicting the impact of climate risk through models is an important step to better understand its current and future impacts.
利用全球模型气候的输出，使用一个可细分的、透明的、可升级的、可验证结果的方法， 通过气候风险指数来确定一个投资组合在今天之后的气候变化风险。 我们将持续完善的气候风险评分框架，将多要素的气候模型与短时临近的天气模型结合， 以创建一个针对包含国际天然气供需、安全、运输的高分辨率气候风险评估指数为目标， 通过我们的评估指数和定制服务为未来的决策过程和决策流程提供长期的服务、优化和升级。
Using the output of the global model climate, use a segmentable, transparent, scalable, and methodology to validate results through a climate risk index to determine a portfolio’s post-today climate change risk. We will continue to refine the climate risk scoring framework by combining multifactor climate models with short-term proximity weather models to create a high-resolution climate risk scoring framework that encompasses international gas supply, demand, security, and transportation. The goal is to create a high-resolution climate risk assessment index that encompasses international gas supply and demand, security, and transportation, with our assessment index and customized services to serve, optimize, and upgrade future decision-making processes and procedures over time. Our assessment indexes and customized services provide long-term service, optimization and upgrades to future decision-making processes and processes.
项目概况
Service Overview
我们力求为液化天然气行业提供定制的气象服务
We strive to provide customized weather services for the LNG industry
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短期预报 Short-term forecast
输气管道积雪、线路结冰和闪电提供预报
Gas pipeline snow, line icing and lightning provide forecasts
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长期预报 Long-term forecasts
将融合业界最先进的模型，从全球多种模型来源获得集合和确定的预测结果， 确保专业性、前瞻性、与行业的融合度，保证模式的持续调优。利用量化数据,获得竞争优势。
We will integrate the most advanced models in the industry, and obtain aggregated and definitive forecasts from multiple global model sources to ensure professionalism, foresight, and integration with the industry to ensure continuous model tuning. Leverage quantitative data to gain a competitive advantage.
通过实际的气候与通过模型预测气候、定制化的系统服务及一对一气候专家服务提供多角度的预测和监测服务。 我们将提供准确的全球当地预测，在有条件的情况下，利用现场观测进行现场具体预测，以验证和提高预测的准确性。
We provide multi-faceted forecasting and monitoring services through actual climate versus predicted climate through models, customized system services, and one-on-one climate expert services. We will provide accurate global local forecasts and, where available, site-specific forecasts using in situ observations to verify and improve the accuracy of the forecasts.
项目目的
Service Purpose
保障天然气管网高效平稳运行
Ensure efficient and smooth operation of natural gas pipeline network
分析天然气用气量与温度的关系,为天然气的短期预测提供信息,有利于天然气的调度管理。
Analysis of the relationship between natural gas consumption and temperature provides information for short-term forecasting of natural gas and facilitates the management of natural gas dispatch.
未来范围内天然气业务变化趋势和成因进行预测及分析
Forecasting and analysis of trends and causes of changes in the natural gas business in the future
为能够准确确定某区域天然气消费量的预测模型，跟踪并理解近年来全球主要地区及中国重点业务开展城市气温变化情况，建立气温中短期气温预测模型和分析机制。
In order to be able to accurately determine the forecast model for natural gas consumption in a region, we track and understand the temperature changes in recent years in major global regions and key Chinese cities where business is conducted, and establish a model and analysis mechanism for short- and medium-term temperature forecasting.
量化实际的气候风险
Quantifying the actual climate risk
纳入模型气候风险对其投资组合的过程中加以参考判断，使因为被气候变化而影响的投资组合，可以有效的针对实况以及在近期、中期或长期的未来做出更有利有依据的判断。
By incorporating climate risk into the modeling process to inform the judgment of its portfolio, the portfolio affected by climate change can effectively make more favorable judgments about actual conditions and the near, medium, or long-term future.
特色服务
Service Features
LNG交易需要在全球范围内进行天气分析。
我们提供欧洲、美洲、澳洲、亚洲、北极包括近海等地区提供详细的基于图表的未来十个月的气候信息并提供温度异常预报， 将预测结果与历史气候的各类天气要素值进行比较，更好的判断预测值与历史往期的对比。
LNG trading requires weather analysis on a global scale.
We provide detailed chart-based climate information for the next ten months for Europe, the Americas, Australia, Asia, the Arctic including offshore areas and provide temperature anomaly forecasts, comparing the forecast results with historical climate values for various weather elements to better judge how the forecast values compare with historical past periods.
我们提供全面的天气要素包括温度、压力、湿度、风速和风向等几十种不同的数据类别。 并根据能源消耗的区域加权的气象汇总指数。 将全球各类天气灾害进行推送,确保一手信息可以被最快的用于局势分析，实况数据为运输路途中提供服务。
We offer a comprehensive range of weather elements including temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed and wind direction in dozens of different data categories. We also provide a weather summary index weighted by region of energy consumption. All types of weather hazards around the world are pushed to ensure that first-hand information can be used to analyze the situation as quickly as possible, and that live data is available for transportation on the road.
我们提供全面的天气要素包括温度、压力、湿度、风速和风向等几十种不同的数据类别。 并根据能源消耗的区域加权的气象汇总指数。 将全球各类天气灾害进行推送,确保一手信息可以被最快的用于局势分析，实况数据为运输路途中提供服务。
We offer a comprehensive range of weather elements including temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed and wind direction in dozens of different data categories. We also provide a weather summary index weighted by region of energy consumption. All types of weather hazards around the world are pushed to ensure that first-hand information can be used to analyze the situation as quickly as possible, and that live data is available for transportation on the road.
准确性、及时性智能分析与数据统计
Accuracy and Timeliness Intelligent Analysis and Data Statistics
我们认为准确性和及时性至关重要，利用最先进的智能分析， 结合高分辨率的气象模型数据和统计数据，为满足风能、水能和太阳能的要求提供服务。 多源数据的融合将诞生新型的数据模型,我们可以根据公开数据结合行业数据,如按人口和发电量的加权指数, 为能源消耗的需求量提供深度学习的模型,为区域和国家的电力和天然气需求进行预测,为所有模型提供大量的综合预测数据。
We believe accuracy and timeliness are critical, using state-of-the-art intelligent analysis combined with high-resolution meteorological model data and statistical data to provide services to meet wind, hydro and solar energy requirements. The fusion of data from multiple sources will give birth to new types of data models, and we can provide deep learning models for energy consumption demand based on publicly available data combined with industry data, such as weighted indices by population and electricity generation, for regional and national electricity and gas demand forecasting, providing a large amount of integrated forecasting data for all models.
服务保障
Service Guarantee
我们致力打造快速、灵活、 准确的气象系统服务。
We are committed to creating fast, flexible and accurate weather system services
对公司和气象学家来说，该系统作为沟通的平台，数据访问的速度和相关信息呈现方式是至关重要的。
For company and the meteorologists, the system serves as a platform for communication, and the speed of data access and presentation of relevant information is critica.
我们确保数据的传输质量 及传输速度
We ensure the quality and speed of data transmission
通过国内建立数据中心以确保数据的传输质量及传输速度,我们提供详细可定制的服务。确保我们的工具能为公司提供优势。
By establishing a data center in China to ensure the quality and speed of data transmission, we provide a detailed and customizable service. We ensure that our tools provide an advantage to company.
我们保证7/24小时全天候的分析及监测、预测更新和系统支持以及灵活的交互方式及格式
We guarantee 24/7 access to analysis and monitoring, predictive updates and system support, as well as flexible interaction methods and formats
通过城市级别的系统运行和安全保障流程，确保稳定及防护。通过即时信息服务与我们的气象学团队保持定期联系。
Ensure stability and protection through city-level system operation and security processes. Maintain regular contact with our meteorology team through instant messaging services.
天气服务&气象数据分类
Weather Service & Meteorological data classification
天气数据来源
Data Sources
天气资料是为天气分析和预报服务的一种实时性很强的气象资料。为了取得宝贵的气象资料, 全世界各国都建立了各类气象观测站,如地面站、探空站、测风站、火箭站、辐射站、 农气站和自动气象站等。气象数据资料中，地面气象资料、海洋气象资料、高空气象资料、 卫星探测资料、天气雷达探测资料和数值预报模式产品占数据总量的90%以上。
Weather data is a kind of real-time meteorological information for weather analysis and forecasting. In order to obtain valuable meteorological data, all countries around the world have established various types of meteorological observation stations, such as ground stations, sounding stations, wind measurement stations, rocket stations, radiation stations, agricultural gas stations and automatic weather stations. Among the meteorological data, ground-based meteorological data, marine meteorological data, high-altitude meteorological data, satellite sounding data, weather radar sounding data and numerical forecast model products account for more than 90% of the total data.
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实况数据 Live Data
实况数据是气象学科发展的最基础数据，也是模式数据产生的源头。简单来说，实况数据属于“一般过去时数据”，来自不同的观测设备。
Live data are the most fundamental data for the development of meteorological disciplines and the source of model data generation. In simple terms, real data are “general past tense data” and come from different observation devices.
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实况数据 Live Data
实况数据是气象学科发展的最基础数据，也是模式数据产生的源头。简单来说，实况数据属于“一般过去时数据”，来自不同的观测设备。
Live data are the most fundamental data for the development of meteorological disciplines and the source of model data generation. In simple terms, real data are “general past tense data” and come from different observation devices.
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模式数据 Model Data
模式数据与实况数据相比，属于预测未来的“一般将来时数据”。模式数据是由高性能计算机根据当前天气实况数据(包括地面、高空、卫星等)通过物理方程计算得出的
Compared with real data, model data are “general future time data” for predicting the future. Model data is calculated by a high-performance computer based on current weather data (including ground, upper air, satellite, etc.) through physical equations.
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模式数据 Model Data
模式数据与实况数据相比，属于预测未来的“一般将来时数据”。模式数据是由高性能计算机根据当前天气实况数据(包括地面、高空、卫星等)通过物理方程计算得出的
Compared with real data, model data are “general future time data” for predicting the future. Model data is calculated by a high-performance computer based on current weather data (including ground, upper air, satellite, etc.) through physical equations.
数值预报模式方法简介
Introduction to Numerical Forecasting
Model Methodology
模式系统一般每天计算4次，在整点开始，利用整点前采集到的实况数据进行计算， 每次计算要生成几百个物理量，包括从开始计算的时刻(又称作“起报时刻”)至未来240小时时效(或更长) 的一系列二进制网格数据，预报时效间隔3小时。目前气象网格经纬度间距一般在0.25度数量级， 一个网格文件大小通常在1～2兆，包含几十万个浮点数值。
The model system generally calculates four times a day, starting at the full point and using the live data collected before the full point, generating several hundred physical quantities per calculation, including a series of binary grid data from the time of the start of the calculation (also known as the “starting point”) to the next 240 hours (or longer), with a forecast interval of 3 hours. hours. Currently, the latitude and longitude spacing of weather grids is generally in the order of 0.25 degrees, and the size of a grid file is usually in the range of 1 to 2 megabytes, containing hundreds of thousands of floating point values.
预报服务
Forecast Service
短期数值预报
Short-term numerical forecasts
短期数值预报的10天单级预测大气模型是天气预报中分辨率最高的模型，该模型结合观测数据和地球系统前期气象要素信息，预测未来10-15天的气象信息。该模型每天提供4次预报（00/06/12/18时），这4次预报包含每个小时的天气要素预报，总时长为90小时
The 10-day single-stage predictive atmospheric model for short-term numerical forecasting is the highest resolution model for weather forecasting, which combines observational data and information from the Earth system’s prior meteorological elements to predict weather information for the next 10-15 days. The model provides four forecasts per day (00/06/12/18 hours), which contain forecasts of weather elements for each hour for a total of 90 hours
时间范围：未来10-15天，每天00:00
Time frame: next 10-15 days, every day 00:00
超长期数值预报
Ultra-long-term numerical forecasting
超长期预报提供了关于预期未来大气和海洋状况的信息，与中期预报一样，超长期预报也采用海洋-大气耦合模式。长期预测依赖于地球系统变化的各个方面，具有很长的时间尺度(由月到年)，并且在某种程度上是可预测的。超长期预报频次为每个月一次，并在未来延续10个月，提供未来10个月的预报。
Ultra-long-range forecasts provide information on expected future atmospheric and oceanic conditions and, like medium-range forecasts, use coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Long-term forecasts rely on various aspects of Earth system changes, have long time scales (from months to years), and are somewhat predictable. The frequency of ultra-long-range forecasts is once per month and extends for 10 months into the future, providing forecasts for the next 10 months.
时间范围：未来1-10月，每月8日12:00
Time frame: January-October, 12:00 on the 8th of each month
定制化的系统服务
Customized System Services
全球及中国大陆地区中短期气温变化预测系统
Short- to medium-term temperature change forecasting system for global and mainland China
产品服务
Product services
©2021～2022 深圳市赑玄阁科技有限公司 粤ICP备15012844号-1
©2021～2022 深圳市赑玄阁科技有限公司 粤ICP备15012844号-1